Next Tactics

In a previous article, we discussed the possible scenarios for market direction once peak volatility passed.  Once bottoming bars were established by the doji shaped candles (labelled climax low on the chart below), the risk reward parameters are established and projections can be made. With specific reference to the Dow Jones index, the first fibonacci … Continue reading Next Tactics

Possible Scenarios

One of the most infamous sentiments in the investment arena is, "this time it's different."  Every major sell off in the history of publicly traded stock markets have elicited those sentiments from observers both amateur and professional.  While normal ebbs and flows can be reasonably explained in real time, when a big sigma selloff occurs, … Continue reading Possible Scenarios

The Madness of Crowds

Anyone who has actively participated in stock markets over the decades has observed a multitude of manic, euphoric advancing phases but also periods of steep, devastating declines as well. The ebbs and flows of the market, while varied in their intensity and duration have always managed to eventually move higher.  When things are good, there's … Continue reading The Madness of Crowds

Are We There Yet?

Measuring human behavior is not the same as measuring balance sheet items.  People as a group will move from euphoric optimism to dire pessimism at the extremes.  Group behavior is the underlying premise of technical analysis.  As an aside, the mass hysteria surrounding Covid 19 and which has played a large role in market action, … Continue reading Are We There Yet?

The Secret

I've discussed a number of techniques and approaches to making sense of market gyrations over the years.  Some of these approaches can be esoteric and confusing, but for the most part, the best approaches should be framed in strategies that embrace logic.  Lines crossing and thresholds broken are fine, but there should be a logical … Continue reading The Secret

Bottom Picking Indicator

Following up on our discussion on looking for bottoming action, we are going to look at one simple indicator, or in this case, chart pattern to gain insight into a possible bottom for a stock after a sharp sell off. To be clear, there are a host of other factors to consider besides this one … Continue reading Bottom Picking Indicator