Possible Scenarios

One of the most infamous sentiments in the investment arena is, "this time it's different."  Every major sell off in the history of publicly traded stock markets have elicited those sentiments from observers both amateur and professional.  While normal ebbs and flows can be reasonably explained in real time, when a big sigma selloff occurs, … Continue reading Possible Scenarios

The Madness of Crowds

Anyone who has actively participated in stock markets over the decades has observed a multitude of manic, euphoric advancing phases but also periods of steep, devastating declines as well. The ebbs and flows of the market, while varied in their intensity and duration have always managed to eventually move higher.  When things are good, there's … Continue reading The Madness of Crowds

Are We There Yet?

Measuring human behavior is not the same as measuring balance sheet items.  People as a group will move from euphoric optimism to dire pessimism at the extremes.  Group behavior is the underlying premise of technical analysis.  As an aside, the mass hysteria surrounding Covid 19 and which has played a large role in market action, … Continue reading Are We There Yet?

The Secret

I've discussed a number of techniques and approaches to making sense of market gyrations over the years.  Some of these approaches can be esoteric and confusing, but for the most part, the best approaches should be framed in strategies that embrace logic.  Lines crossing and thresholds broken are fine, but there should be a logical … Continue reading The Secret