For the other half of market analysis is not just what, but as importantly, it's when.
It's been almost 4 months since the initial shock to the stock markets ostensibly caused by the panicked entreaties of health officials. A number of factors contributed to the massive selloff which ensued over the following months based on the sudden introduction of unknowns. The lack of substantiated facts was one factor but also the … Continue reading The Significance Of Trend
As you'd expect, there has been positive activity in the Gold sector. It may be surprising that relative strength was occurring here even before the recent market volatility. As we look at the relative performance of some major sectors, it wasn't obvious that gold stocks were outperforming the overall market (as measured by the Nasdaq). … Continue reading Gold
As this is being written, the US equity markets have opened sharply lower following the action of the Asian market sell off. Late Friday afternoon, OPEC had essentially announced that their cartel has fractured and that oil prices would no longer be controlled at managed levels via production controls. Couple this with the on-going panic … Continue reading The Rogue Wave
In the last commentary, we discussed technical tools to determine when downside momentum may have stopped and whether it would be safe to re-enter markets from the long side. To reiterate, technical tools give traders a framework for risk, but they are not fortune telling devices. Acting on logical evidence is a skill that has … Continue reading What Can Go Wrong
What we are seeing now is a retracement to less optimistic pricing but for the moment still above the long term uptrend.
A group which has flown under the radar but which has nevertheless been relatively strong compared to the S&P index are a number of issues in the hotel group. While there are a number of hotels which are owned by ETF trusts and therefore more financial products than pure plays, there are a few which … Continue reading Hospitality And Hotels
As postulated in our last post, the major stock indices have managed to claw their way back after the climatic sell off in February. While you can never be precisely sure about the reaction of markets after a dramatic move, historical precedent can provide clues as to what is likely to happen. In general, if … Continue reading Markets Continue to Advance: Search For Relative Strength
As we begin this new calendar year, the markets continue to surge into new highs even as some fatigue seems to be settling in among some individual issues. Plotting the performance of select sectors versus the benchmark S&P shows that many of the strong momentum groups remain strong and not exhibiting conspicuous weakness. Technology stocks … Continue reading Oil And Oil Services
Part 3 of the Dow review MSFT Forecast: "..$62.14 Microsoft was one of the steadiest performers of the Dow in 2016 with price action consistently showing a higher relative strength than the S&P. Despite the steady advance all year, the SCTR still remains high at 78 and looks very strong. The PNF chart shows a … Continue reading That Was Then, This Is Now Part 3