One of the most common misconceptions about the interpretation of price movements of charts is the expectation that pattern recognition equals precise predictability. While one aspect of using technical analysis is to make sense of price movements, there is no certainty that what has worked in the past will work in exactly the same way … Continue reading It’s What As Well As When
I've stolen that sentence from Franklin D. Roosevelt to commemorate today's date, October 19th. To those who have been long time participants in the stock markets, that day in 1987 was the single most traumatic experience in their lives, even as ensuing selloffs in the years since have arguably been as dramatic. At that time … Continue reading A Date That Will Live In Infamy
On March 22, almost a month ago, we discussed scenarios for the direction of the market, specifically the Dow Jones in the weeks to follow. At the time, the market was at maximum fear and volatility measures were spiking to all time highs. Because of the climatic nature of the sell off at the time, … Continue reading Market Update May 14
When the media refers to "the market", the normal reference is to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. As we know, the Dow is only a very narrow measure of stock market activity. Though its constituency changes over the years to better reflect the most dynamic sectors of the US economy, it does not necessarily measure … Continue reading Where Is The Action?
We've been able to logically navigate the swings in the market thus far using some technical tools, some logic and as always, a bit of luck. Much of what has moved markets has been unpredictably external to market dynamics and we are still under some uncertainty in that regard. The activity in the markets reflects … Continue reading Tactic Update
As hoped for, the period of peak volatility has passed ( for now) and stock prices have bounced off their panic lows. We witnessed some genuine capitulation as some daily price bars showed extreme intraday fluctuations, falling to new lows only to close near the opening prices. As we've discussed, such price bars are a … Continue reading Leaders And Laggards
As has happened numerous times in history, the markets mounted a high volatility rally after the approximately 10 sigma selloff experienced last week. Panic and euphoria are always lurking in markets and will serve to draw people into their respective manias at the worst times. We have pointed out that there are many signs to … Continue reading The Bounce